Inside the shopper mindset of the 2025 holiday season

Emma Dinning

·

October 15, 2025

Is your brand in the throes of preparing for peak season?

During the shopping rush around the holidays, retail brands typically capture around 19% of their customers’ total annual spend. The Black Friday - Cyber Monday (BFCM) shopping event, in particular, tends to be a bonanza for retailers: Last year, online shoppers in the U.S. spent over $24 billion during that four-day period alone, representing a 15.3% jump from the previous year.

But there are signs that brands may need to temper their expectations around peak season profits this year. Fueled by tariffs and economic anxiety, consumer sentiment has taken a nosedive this year, reaching levels 35% below their peak in November 2024.

While shoppers are holding steady on essential purchases, like groceries and pet supplies, they’re cutting back significantly on their nice-to-haves: 37% said they’re spending less on apparel and footwear, and 45% had reduced spending on accessories. And notably, nearly a quarter of shoppers say they plan to spend less on their holiday shopping this year.

They’re also looking beyond BFCM to find the right products at the right prices.

“Shoppers are approaching the holiday season more cautious and value-driven, with transparency around pricing becoming a critical trust factor after last year’s deal skepticism,” says Jennifer Karlson, Head of Strategy at Domaine, a digital agency for Shopify brands. “They’re spreading purchases throughout the season rather than concentrating on BFCM.”

“This peak season, we expect consumer behavior to be less about volume spikes and more about volatility,” adds Ferka Vukel, Vice President of Operations at Bergen Logistics.

“Shoppers are spreading purchases across channels and holding out longer for promotions, which makes demand harder to forecast.”

With these changes in mind, how can your brand best adapt your strategy to grow your revenue sustainably this holiday season?

Build customized offers that stand out

Don’t focus on building general promotions during the crowded BFCM shopping event – instead, prioritize setting up personalized offers targeted to individual shoppers. By targeting shoppers based on factors like their browsing or buying behaviors and their location, you’ll be able to create customized deals that they’re far more likely to engage with.

“To win, brands need to lean into omnichannel convenience and AI-driven personalization to meet customers where they are and deliver offers that resonate,” says Karlson.

For instance, if a shopper has clicked on a product page for a pair of tennis shoes, you can send them an offer for a personalized shoes discount code– including links to purchase curated products online, as well as listing in-stock inventory in their local stores. By putting the focus on what your shoppers actually want, rather than simply slashing prices, you’ll be able to build a more sustainable marketing strategy that will carry you through peak season and beyond.

Leverage the right partners to support fulfillment

Because this shopping season is more unpredictable in nature, it’s more difficult for merchants to forecast their inventory and labor needs this peak season. If you try to handle everything in-house, you may end up running out of stock, or struggle with overstaffing or understaffing your warehouse operations. Instead, consider working with an outsourced fulfillment solution, such as a 3PL, which can use technology to better manage demand, and can respond with great agility as needs change quickly.

“Fulfillment partners will be under pressure to flex labor, space, and transportation quickly,” says Vukel. “The 3PLs best positioned to support their clients will be those with strong data visibility, scalable operations, and proactive communication—helping brands navigate uncertainty without sacrificing speed or customer experience.”

Set up safeguards against returns fraud

Peak season returns fraud is on the rise, and it’s a huge liability for retailers. Among Loop brands alone, $28.9M USD worth of transactions were flagged as high risk for fraud. Last year, U.S. brands saw a 22% jump in fraud attempts compared to the previous year, and it’s likely this year’s rate could be even higher.

If left unchecked, returns fraud has the potential to decimate your profit margins. That’s why it’s so important to put ecommerce fraud prevention safeguards in place to catch fraudulent attempts before they go through. Loop’s fraud solution monitors all of your returns data for red flags of potential fraud, flagging them for manual review. Our tool successfully identifies $0.87 of every dollar in return fraud transactions, helping our merchants preserve revenue that would otherwise be lost to fraud without setting up restrictions that impact the customer experience.

Prioritize the post-purchase experience

When shoppers have so many brands competing for their attention, it takes more than a good deal to stand out. That means it’s crucial to develop a best-in-class post-purchase experience that builds shoppers’ trust – both before and after they’ve made a purchase.

• Build a generous returns policy: Keep in mind that 77% of shoppers check a store’s returns policy before making a purchase. That means if you haven’t built a hassle-free and flexible returns policy for your products, shoppers are far more likely to look elsewhere when they’re stocking up on holiday gifts or purchases for their homes. By giving your shoppers confidence that they can easily get a refund or exchange if their purchase doesn’t work out, you’ll build trust in your brand that will translate into higher revenue.
• Customize returns processes based on categories: With Loop’s returns management tools, you can build customized Workflows to automate seamless returns policies for different product categories, such as requiring inspection on intimate apparel before a refund. This can help reduce returns abuse without impacting the customer experience on low-risk return transactions and save time on customer support.
• Be transparent with delivery and shipping details: Shoppers often back out of a purchase if they’re not sure it will arrive in time for their holiday festivities, or if it costs too much after shipping charges. By using Loop’s Delivery Promise feature, shoppers can instantly see when a product would arrive – eliminating the friction they’d normally face at the checkout page and making it more likely they’ll complete a purchase.
• Provide real-time order tracking updates: Don’t leave your shoppers in the dark around when their order is going to arrive. Ninety percent of customers want the ability to track their order status: By providing real-time order tracking emails that link through to branded landing pages each time their order reaches a new goalpost (confirmed, shipped, out for delivery, delivered), you’ll be able to keep your shoppers well-informed, reducing the number of support inquiries associated with orders. Plus, by including curated product recommendations on your order tracking pages, you can generate additional revenue through upsells.
• Set up self-service returns: Customers can use Loop’s self-service returns portal to initiate a refund or exchange without waiting for your customer support team for help. With Shop Now & Later, they can easily save their refund amount as store credit, so that they can choose new items at any time.
• Provide a variety of methods for returning items: Offering omnichannel returns options, including boxless drop off, return in-store, and mail-in returns, gives your shoppers more flexibility and convenience around the returns process - making it more likely that they’ll make a purchase in the first place. 

"Shoppers today expect seamless experiences at every touchpoint—especially after they click 'buy,'" says Marco De Paulis, Senior Director of Partnerships at Loop. "Brands that invest in transparent policies, flexible returns options, and real-time communication aren't just reducing friction—they're building the trust that turns one-time holiday shoppers into loyal customers year-round."

As peak season approaches, pairing personalization with best-in-class automations will help you deliver a stellar experience that converts more shoppers during the holiday rush – and keeps them coming back long after Santa’s sleigh has left the premises.

Want more tips on navigating peak season? Check out all of our peak season resources.

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